Why You Still Feel Tired
Welcome to Effective Habits, a weekly newsletter where I share evidence-based strategies and tools to help you live a happy, healthy, and productive life.
Today at a Glance:
Are You Noticing This?
Feeling Tired? 7 Things We Get Wrong About What Gives Us Energy
4 Secrets to Smarter Thinking
“The luminous and shocking beauty of the everyday is something I try to remain alert to, if only as an antidote to the chronic cynicism and disenchantment that seems to surround everything, these days. It tells me that, despite how debased or corrupt we are told humanity is and how degraded the world has become, it just keeps on being beautiful.”
Are You Noticing This?
Ryan Holiday
🔦Lights, Camera, ...
Some frustrations become so familiar they disappear into the wallpaper of life, which is why it can be startling to realize that something irritating, inconvenient, or broken has quietly gotten better without much notice. A dead zone on a rural property suddenly has full bars. A long-maddening airport construction project is finally nearing completion. A child who once needed to be carried, buckled, soothed, and watched every second is now, almost imperceptibly, more capable, more independent. Progress often arrives not with an announcement, but gradually, beneath the noise of daily aggravations, beneath the bias toward bad news, beneath the mind’s habit of tracking what is still wrong instead of what has been repaired. That is why it is worth deliberately updating one’s view of reality from time to time. What source of stress is no longer there? What old annoyance has quietly been eliminated? What burden has lightened? Marcus Aurelius, writing in an age no less troubled than ours, trained himself to notice beauty in ordinary things and dignity in gradual processes, to see not only decay and disorder but ripening grain, split bread, wild animals, and the strange artistry of the everyday. That discipline matters, especially in ugly times, because while the world has always been messy, cruel, dysfunctional, and unfinished, it has also, in so many ways, improved. Modern life still gives people plenty to lament, but it also offers forms of safety, comfort, medicine, sanitation, and opportunity that even emperors and queens of the past never knew. The same is often true on a personal level: life today is usually better than life once was, even if memory edits that fact out. So yes, notice what is broken and work to fix it, but also learn to notice what has already been fixed. Somewhere inside the chaos, progress is being made quietly, steadily, and almost invisibly. You only have to slow down long enough to see it.
🎬Action!
Run a weekly “What Got Better?” reset: Once a week, pause for 5 minutes and write down one thing in your life that used to be frustrating, broken, or difficult, but is now improved, resolved, or simply no longer an issue. This forces you to update your mental model of reality, shift attention from lingering problems to quiet progress, and train your awareness to notice what’s working and not just what’s not.
🔦Lights, Camera, ...
Feeling tired isn’t always a sign that you need to slow down. In many cases, it’s a sign that your intuition about energy is off. While we instinctively understand that sleep restores us, we often fall into the trap of avoiding the very behaviors that would actually boost our energy, like exercise or social connection, simply because they require a higher upfront effort than passive alternatives. The science shows a consistent mismatch: activities that feel harder to start—like moving your body or engaging with others—tend to generate energy over time, while the easy options we default to often leave us more drained. Part of the confusion comes from how we experience energy in the moment versus over the full arc of an activity, and part comes from misleading mental models, like treating energy purely as a finite fuel rather than something that can be created through action. Even things we rely on, like caffeine, may not be increasing our energy so much as masking fatigue. The result is that we unintentionally choose comfort over vitality, reinforcing habits that keep us stuck. If we want to feel better—not just be more productive, but actually more alive—we need to question our assumptions and start aligning our behaviors with what truly creates energy, not just what feels easiest in the moment.
🎬Action!
Misconception #1: Exercise is exhausting → exercise anyway to boost your energy. Don’t trust the instinct to rest when energy is low. Moderate exercise boosts mood, cognition, and long-term energy. Just keep intensity in check to avoid overtraining or aggravating injuries.
Misconception #2: Introverts are drained by socializing → Initiate or accept social interaction, even if you expect it to drain you. Most people feel better after socializing, not worse. Even brief conversations can lift mood and energy more than anticipated.
Misconception #3: Scrolling on your phone helps you relax → Replace mindless scrolling with intentional, restorative activities. Mindless scrolling often drains more than it restores, especially by cutting into sleep and lacking meaning. Be deliberate about how you spend your downtime.
Misconception #4: Long work hours inevitably lead to burnout → Focus on autonomy and meaning, not just working less. Burnout is less about hours and more about lack of control and purpose. Improve how you work, not just how much.
Misconception #5: Alcohol helps you sleep better → Avoid alcohol and prioritize sleep quality over falling asleep faster. A nightcap may make you drowsy, but it disrupts restorative sleep and reduces next-day energy.
Misconception #6: Venting relieves stress → Pause, regulate your emotions, then respond calmly. Releasing anger often reinforces it. Break the cycle by pausing, regulating your emotions, and addressing the issue with clarity.
Misconception #7: Coffee boosts your energy long-term → Use caffeine intentionally and consider reducing dependence. Caffeine may be masking withdrawal rather than increasing your baseline energy. Be mindful of reliance and consider moderating intake.
4 Secrets to Smarter Thinking
Eric Barker
🔦Lights, Camera, ...
In 2005, Philip Tetlock set out to test whether the world’s most confident experts could actually predict the future, and after analyzing more than 28,000 forecasts from nearly 300 political analysts, economists, and insiders, the answer was a resounding no; they performed barely better than chance, often no more accurate than an average person with a strong opinion. But buried in the data was a surprise: a small group of ordinary individuals—later dubbed “superforecasters”—consistently outperformed the experts, even those with access to classified information. Their edge wasn’t genius, intuition, or secret knowledge; it was something far more accessible: disciplined, careful thinking. They broke problems down, updated their beliefs with new information, and resisted overconfidence, which are habits anyone can learn. Which raises a powerful question: what if we approached our own decisions the same way? Superforecasting isn’t about predicting geopolitics, it’s about making fewer bad calls in everyday life. And the best part? Research shows you can noticeably improve these skills in under an hour. So rather than relying on gut instinct or loud opinions, you can start thinking a little more like a superforecaster and get a little more right, a little more often.
🎬Action!
Use Numbers and Track Them. Turn every prediction into a percentage instead of hiding behind vague words like “maybe” or “probably.” Say 65%, 30%, or even 23.7% if you want to be precise, because numbers force clarity and can actually be adjusted over time. Then log your predictions so you can’t rewrite history later. For example, instead of saying “I knew that would happen,” you can check your notes and see you gave it a 30% chance, meaning you didn’t know, you guessed. Writing things down keeps you honest and lets you learn from what you get right (and wrong).
Make the Question Specific and Measurable. Frame your predictions so they can be clearly tested. A vague question like “Will I become someone who works out regularly?” can’t be scored, so it teaches you nothing. Instead, define a concrete version: “By October 1, will I complete a 20-minute workout three times a week for four weeks, tracked in my fitness app?” Now you have a clear outcome, timeline, and measurement. When the time comes, you’ll know if you were right, and more importantly, by how much.
Start with Base Rates, Then Adjust. Before trusting your gut, ask: “How often does this actually happen?” Most plans fail in predictable ways, and base rates (historical averages) are a brutally effective reality check. For example, if 90% of people abandon workout plans by week two, that’s your starting point—not your current excitement. Only after accepting that baseline should you ask, “What’s meaningfully different this time?” (e.g., a new schedule, accountability partner, or environment change). Then go one step further: list reasons you might still be wrong, like overestimating your motivation after 6 p.m., so you don’t fool yourself.
Break Problems Down (Fermi Method). Instead of making one big guess, break the outcome into smaller steps and estimate each one. For example, “Will I go to bed before midnight this week?” becomes: finish work by 9pm (70%), avoid starting a Netflix show at 10:45 (40%), avoid doomscrolling (30%), avoid late-night anxiety (50%). Multiply them: 0.7 × 0.4 × 0.3 × 0.5 = 4.2%. Suddenly, your “pretty good chance” looks like a long shot. This method exposes where things break and shows exactly what to fix (e.g., put your phone in another room or set a hard cutoff for work).
Run Quick Postmortems to Improve. After each prediction resolves, take two minutes to review it: what helped, what misled you, and what you’ll do differently next time. For example, you might realize you consistently overestimate how productive you are after work or underestimate how distracting your phone is. These small reviews create a feedback loop, helping you spot patterns and steadily make better predictions and decisions over time.
TOOL TIP
How it Wears: A really well executed reference library that covers 100+ textile fibres (cotton, polyester, linen, merino and many more) explaining how each one ages, behaves, and should be cared for. There is a ‘cost per wear’ analyser that lets you “understand the real value of a garment over time”.
FUN FACT
McDonald’s once made bubblegum-flavored broccoli. Unsurprisingly, the attempt to get kids to eat healthier didn’t go over well with the child testers, who were “confused by the taste.”
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended as medical advice. Please consult a medical professional for advice, diagnosis, or treatment. We are not liable for any risks or issues that may arise from using this information.
