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How to Create Your Own Luck

Welcome to Effective Habits, a weekly newsletter where I share evidence-based strategies and tools to help you live a happy, healthy, and productive life.

Today at a Glance:

• Just Trust the Experts

• Dietary Fiber: The Poor Man's Ozempic?

• How to Create Your Own Luck

Just Trust the Experts
Scott H. Young

Lights, Camera, ...
The idea of trusting experts has sparked much debate, especially when it comes to fields like nutrition, climate, vaccines, and politics. While contrarians often argue that mainstream scientific views are flawed, relying on expert consensus is generally the best approach to forming accurate beliefs. Experts, with their deep knowledge and years of study, are more likely to be right than the average person, and their collective opinions are even more reliable. Although biases and flaws exist within any field, challenging expert opinion requires strong, evidence-backed reasoning. Contrarianism, if not grounded in thorough research, often leads to inaccurate conclusions. Ultimately, trusting the majority of experts helps us form beliefs that are more likely to be true, benefiting our decisions in health, career, and beyond.

Action!

• If you want to have more true beliefs, you should simply believe the majority consensus of the experts who study the topic, most of the time. However, keep two key factors in mind:

  • Experts can tell you what to believe—not how strongly to believe it. Expert confidence doesn’t always match the strength of the evidence. Some fields, like physics, are highly reliable, while others, like nutrition, are more uncertain. It’s reasonable to stay skeptical about shaky fields without jumping to alternative conclusions.

  • If your goal isn’t to maximize true beliefs, contrarianism can be justified. Experts aim to be right within the existing framework, but progress comes from those who challenge the consensus. Just like the stock market benefits from some risk-taking, intellectual progress benefits from thoughtful contrarians—but casual disagreement without deep understanding is more likely to fail than succeed. Remember, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Dietary Fiber: The Poor Man's Ozempic?
Dr. Paul Kedrosky & Dr. Howard Luks

Lights, Camera, ...
Most people aren’t getting enough fiber — even though it’s a game-changer for health. Fiber comes in two types: soluble (found in oats, beans, and fruits) helps regulate blood sugar and lower cholesterol, while insoluble (in whole grains and veggies) keeps digestion smooth and prevents constipation. Despite its benefits — including better gut health, reduced heart disease risk, improved weight management, and even protection against dementia — modern diets are stripped of fiber through food processing and convenience culture. Early humans ate 100–150g of fiber daily; today, most people barely reach 20g. Upping your fiber intake can boost satiety, stabilize blood sugar, and improve overall health — like Ozempic, but cheaper and all-natural.

Action!

1. Aim for 30g+ Daily: Gradually work toward 30g+ of fiber per day from diverse sources for maximum health benefits. Adjust based on comfort.

2. Add More Whole Foods to Every Meal: Focus on vegetables (broccoli, carrots, spinach), fruits (berries, pears, apples with skin), legumes (lentils, chickpeas, black beans), nuts, seeds (chia, flaxseed), and whole grains (quinoa, oats, brown rice).

3. Increase Fiber Gradually: Start small to avoid cramping and bloating—add an extra serving of vegetables or a handful of nuts.

4. Drink Plenty of Water: Fiber absorbs water, so aim for at least 2 Liters a day to prevent constipation.

5. Consider Supplements If Needed: Try psyllium husk if you're not meeting your fiber goals.

6. Spread Fiber Intake Throughout the Day: Have oats in the morning, a salad at lunch, and legumes at dinner for better digestion and energy.

7. Check Labels: Choose high-fiber versions of packaged foods but verify the actual fiber content. Just because the front of the package says “High in Fiber”, doesn’t mean it actually is according to the daily amount suggested above.

How to Create Your Own Luck
Sahil Bloom

Lights, Camera, ...
Luck often looks like an overnight success, but it’s usually years in the making. A famous investor’s public praise recently catapulted Sahil Bloom’s new book to the top of the charts—but the real story is about preparation, not luck. After a chance encounter in 2023, Sahil built a relationship through thoughtful follow-ups and shared value, which led to the investor reading the book two years later and endorsing it publicly. The lesson? "Luck" tends to favor those who put in consistent effort, build relationships, and stay prepared for the right moment. Success may look like luck from the outside, but it’s often the result of quiet, persistent work.

Action!

1. Increase Your Luck Surface Area. Take actions that expose you to new opportunities. Meet new people, share your ideas online, send one cold message every day, or spend time around positive, ambitious individuals. The more you put yourself out there, the higher your chances for luck to strike.

2. Work Hard in the Darkness. Keep working even when no one is watching. Consistently produce, write, and refine your craft. Dedicate yourself to creating something valuable, knowing that the results may not come immediately, but hard work usually pays off in the long run.

3. Shoot Your Shot. Don’t wait for opportunities to come to you—go after them. Ask for what you want if you’ve put in the effort to deserve it. Worst case, you learn from it; best case, you achieve your goal. Never hold back from making the ask.

4. Follow Through. Once you’ve taken action, stay consistent with follow-up. Keep in touch, offer value, and show continued interest. Make sure to follow through on promises and commitments—this is how relationships and opportunities turn into lasting success.

TOOL TIP

Foqos: Disrupting our phone addiction is taking ever more creative approaches. Foqos is a free, open source app that couples with physical NFC tags to de/activate certain modes that will block the apps you’d like to avoid. For instance, create a ‘work’ mode that blocks social media apps and then have an NFC tag near your desk that you need to swipe to en/disable this mode.

FUN FACT

The Microsoft Excel World Championship: (1) exists, (2) streams on ESPN3, and (3) is legitimately interesting to watch.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended as medical advice. Please consult a medical professional for advice, diagnosis, or treatment. We are not liable for any risks or issues that may arise from using this information.